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Syrian Petroleum Crisis Urges Assad Between Russia and Iran

Since the war began in 2011, the Syrian government has been striving to cope with the biggest fuel crisis since the US has been aggravated by sanctions targeting oil shipments to Damascus.

There was a temporary relief when the reserves or leakage oils were released. Long lines outside gas stations have slightly declined as public policies have led to widespread criticism of government policies.

However, more striking measures need to be taken for President Bashar al-Assad’s government, which must provide more than 75 percent of its fuel from external sources.

Experts say that Damascus should take back control of the oil fields in the East, that the US has now taken control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which is backed by the United States, or the cost of Russia’s oil supplies from Iran.

If Washington continues to talk about its military withdrawal and working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, government forces and allies can make a quick move in the east. The withdrawal of the United States, Turkey, in its attacks to expand and push the boundaries of an edge he saw as a threat SDF will offer the chance to start. There are signs, however, that the US may be revising its plans.

Finally, an attack on the east is inevitable, saldırı said Fabrice Balanche, a Syrian expert at the University of Lyon.

“When the attack the Kurds in Turkey (Assad), Umar al-Assad’s forces take the oil fields. After 3 months? Six months? A year? Bir

Syria needs oil. This year’s domestic production reached 24,000 barrels per day – only 20-25% of total needs fell to 350,000 barrels a day before the war. Government officials say they should use $ 2.7 billion of subsidized fuel each year.

Iran, which provides vital military support to Assad, was its main provider. However, Tehran feels the warmth of the US while tightening sanctions.

Iran’s credit limit for increasing oil sales to Sham since 2013 and stopping oil shipment at the end of last year. This was followed by US Treasury sanctions imposed on a network responsible for oil shipments to Syria, Iran, and Russia in November. The Treasury has also issued a global advisory warning on sanctions, including special vessels for illegal oil shipments and pressure insurance companies. According to TankerTrackers.com, at least one tanker with Iranian oil to Syria has remained out of the Suez Canal since December.

It fell to one of the lowest values ​​in the pound years in Syria;

Middlemen, taking approximately 20 percent of the Damascus needs, usually taking the oil from Iraq or Lebanon and taking advantage of sanctions by bringing land. Some of them were abducted from the oil fields in eastern Syria, while the region was being held by ISIS and continued under the leadership of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. In recent days, activists and residents of Damascus have seen oil trucks crossing the territory owned by the government.

In the long run, the SDF may have to negotiate a reconciliation with Damascus, given its precarious dependence on US protection. At the moment, however, the SDG wants to implement sanctions, to tighten checks on supply routes and to secure bridges across the Euphrates to state-controlled areas. They forbade the construction of barges carrying oil along the river.

Russia can provide a steady supply in lieu of Iran. But in order to achieve this, Assad may have to recalibrate ties with Moscow and Tehran, its two main allies, who have different interests in Syria.

Kirill Semenov, a Moscow-based Middle East analyst and Kirill Semenov, a non-resident of the Russian Council on International Relations, said, “The issue is what Assad can offer in return and how profitable it is for Russia.”

”Moscow may be using it to make Assad more flexible and to move more to the interests of Moscow, not to Iran.“

Last week, the Syrian government announced that it had planned to rent the port of Tartous to Russia for 49 years. Russia is already renting a part of the port for the naval base.

In February, the announcement said Iran was negotiating to rent the nearby Port of Latakia to scrape off the debt of Damascus. This will allow Tehran to reach the Mediterranean, right next to the Russian harbor. Moscow will be in a difficult situation with Israel targeting Iranian bases in Syria and continuing a military call with Russia.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov met with Assad in Damascus at the end of April and said the lease agreement of the Russian port would boost bilateral trade and benefit Syria’s economy. “The oil fields in the east are out of reach of the government, but there are” special offers “and that” Syria should be ready to solve “(the problem).

Syrian Transport Minister Ali Hammoud, Stroytransgaz, a leading Russian natural gas, and oil company, will increase the port to more than double its existing capacity and will inject more than $ 500 million.

Stroytransgaz is not afraid of US sanctions. He is controlled by a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been subjected to US sanctions since 2014 due to his connection to the criminal crisis.

David Butter, an energy expert at Chatham House, said both Iran and Russia used the fuel crisis as leverage for Assad.

“Iran wants debt repayment guarantees; Russia seems to be doing angling for more political (and military) control,” he said. Although Moscow has not yet announced what it wants, it wants to impose its will on any political solution, to secure economic assets (and to control the military arena) – to resurrect Iran Moskova.

Leith Aboufadel, the founder and editor of the pro-Syrian government site Al-Masdar News, said that Damascus could “choose the path the Russians set out”, including Iran’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, its main rival in the region.

Late last month, the Russian press reported that after his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, Putin’s ambassador in Syria discussed the crisis in Syria. The Gulf countries, which support armed opposition, attach great importance to Assad, who aims to remove Damascus from the orbit of Tehran.

“The potential decision of the Syrian government may not sit well with Iran, but at this point in the war, the lack of sanctions and funding affects Damascus,” Aboufadel said.

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