Confidence in Islamist movements in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has declined dramatically since the Arab Spring uprising; The branches of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Iran-backed Hezbollah suffered a decline in perception.
Many of the groups in Egypt and Tunisia, in particular, were born, strengthened and strengthened by the chaos of the protests that began in 2011.
However, the study provides further evidence of the low level of support for Islamist groups over the past eight years.BBC This model continues a general downward trend in the confidence of Islamists in MENA in the region since the Arab uprising, said the BBC News Arabic Survey 2018/2019.
Despite the first success of the Islamist movements in Egypt and Tunisia, there is increasing evidence that Islamism has declined in the last eight years. ”Trust in the Brotherhood in Jordan and Morocco has decreased by about 20 percent since 2012-2013.
Pro-Brotherhood is trying to win influence of countries such as Turkey and Qatar, Sudan, this figure is 25 percent higher.
The poll also recorded a decline for the Brotherhood-inspired party Ennahda, part of the ruling coalition in Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began.
Although it emerged as a strong political force after the uprising, confidence in the movement declined by 24 percent. The party was linked to two political assassinations in 2013 and was shaken last year by accusations of a secret organization to infiltrate the military and other state institutions. This year’s elections will test the extent to which the confidence-based decline will affect the polling party. Trust in Hamas, which ruled the Gaza Strip in Palestine, has fallen from 45 percent to 24 percent, as living conditions in the land have fallen under a crippling Israeli blockade.
Hamas was founded in 1987 as part of the Brotherhood. In Egypt, where the Brotherhood elected Mohammed Mursi as president in June 2012, major protests ended the short and divisive rule and confidence fell by 4%.
The figure was similar in Libya, where war continued to escalate seven years after Muammar Gaddafi’s reign ended, leading to an agreement between an Islamist-backed administration in the west and a rival parliament in the east.
The study was based on data obtained from the Arab Barometer research center at Princeton University. The researchers met more than 25,000 people in 11 Arab countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Palestine, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Sudan, and Lebanon.
The Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Hassan Al-Banna in Egypt and branches were established in countries in the region. The group was banned in Egypt in 2013 after the country’s current President, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, led to the overthrow of Mursi, who died last week following the collapse of the Cairo court. Since the 2011 uprising, many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, see the Fraternity as an increasingly greater threat. It was declared a terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. In April, the White House said that the Trump administration was trying to identify a foreign terrorist organization in the Brotherhood.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt cut off transport, trade and diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing the country of hosting and financing terrorist groups, including the Brotherhood.
The BBC survey drew attention to a general decline in confidence in religious leaders between 2012-2014 – 2018-2019. The largest decline since 2016 in Morocco – was 20 percent. Libya, where Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces are struggling to take over the capital, Tripoli, has fallen by 12 percent since 2014.
Confidence in Palestinian religious leaders has also declined significantly since 2012 by 22 percent. This is also the case in Jordan, a 16 percent drop in the same period.
In the survey, Lebanon is the only country where confidence in religious leaders has increased. In fact, it has doubled since 2016 -this may be due to the sectarian political structure of the country.
The survey also asked people about their country’s biggest threat. Approximately one-third of the respondents in Iraq and Yemen perceived Iran as the biggest threat.
In Yemen, Iran supported the Houthi militias against the internationally recognized government. In Iraq, Iran raises a number of armed groups and is accused of involvement in internal affairs.
Israel is considered the biggest threat in Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, and Libya. The survey, support for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy shows that the US and Russian much more than that.
In seven of the 11 countries surveyed, half or more of Erdogan’s policies were approved despite his support for Islamist parties. This included a high level of support in Sudan, Jordan, and Palestine.
However, support in Libya (21 percent), Lebanon (30 percent) and Iraq (38 percent) are much lower. This may be linked to Turkey’s accession to the Syrian conflict. Support for Erdogan is much lower in Egypt, with only 15 percent of people supporting their policies. This may be due to the ongoing tensions between El-Sisi and Erdogan. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policies do not have much support, but he is more popular than US President Donald Trump.
Putin’s support is 43 percent in Libya, 38 percent in Iraq and 37 percent in Lebanon, 13 percent in Jordan and 11 percent in Yemen.
Support is stronger in countries with significant Shiite populations. This probably reflects Russia’s support for Iran’s Assad regime in Syria.Trump’s foreign policies are very popular in all the countries surveyed, and 20 percent or less say their policies are good or very good.
Its policies are most popular in Sudan (20 percent) and Iraq (16 percent), at least in Yemen (5 percent), Palestine (6 percent) and Jordan (7 percent).